SCR795  Addition of Intra-Hour Wind Forecast to GTBD Calculation

ERCOT is in the process of adding an intra-hour wind forecast. This System Change Request (SCR) updates the formula used by the Resource Limit Calculator to calculate the Generation To Be Dispatched (GTBD) value to include the addition of a predicted 5-minute wind ramp (PWRR). This PWRR will be calculated from the intra-hour wind forecast times five and a configurable factor to capture the forecasted 5-minute wind ramp. This addition would help Security-Constrained Economic Dispatch (SCED) take into account the potential 5-minute wind ramp in its 5-minute Base-Points and would take the burden off of Regulation to cover the 5-minute gain or loss of generation from variations in wind and instead dispatch this energy economically. This change will also aid reducing frequency recovery duration following events that occur during times with significant wind up and down ramps. Although there will be inherent forecast error in the intra-hour forecast, this change will give a better indication to SCED via GTBD of the level of wind generation that will be available in the next 5 minutes, as compared to the current assumption that the wind generation will persist at the same level as at the beginning of the 5-minute interval. Once ERCOT begins to receive the intra-hour wind forecast from its vendor(s), ERCOT will analyze the 5-minute out forecast performance and accuracy of projected wind generation ramp direction before the intra hour wind forecast component is activated in the GTBD formula.