OBDRR011  ORDC OBD Revisions for PUCT Project 48551

As directed by the Commissioners of the Public Utility Commission of Texas (PUCT) at the PUCT’s January 17, 2019 open meeting, this Other Binding Document Revision Request (OBDRR) modifies the ORDC to achieve a rightward shift in the Loss of Load Probability (LOLP) curve by 0.25 standard deviations in 2019 and another 0.25 standard deviations in 2020. To effectuate this change, this OBDRR revises the methodology for calculating the probability of reserves falling below the minimum contingency level (“PMBCL”) to shift the LOLP by a defined factor “S” multiplied by the standard deviation of the LOLP distribution. This OBDRR proposes to grey-box the change for 2020 until March 1, 2020, consistent with the Commissioners’ directive. With respect to determining the PMBCL and Real-Time Reserve Price Adders, this OBDRR also replaces season and time of day blocks with a blended curve for all seasons and hours, consistent with the Commissioners’ instruction.