NPRR764  QSE Capacity Short Calculations Based on an 80% Probability of Exceedance (P80)

This Nodal Protocol Revision Request (NPRR) proposes to base Reliability Unit Commitment (RUC) capacity short calculations on the Wind-Powered Generation Resource Production Potential (WGRPP) for a Wind-powered Generation Resource (WGR) and the PhotoVoltaic Generation Resource Production Potential (PVGRPP) for a PhotoVoltaic Generation Resource (PVGR)–i.e., an 80% probability of exceedance (P80). Under the current Protocols, RUC capacity short calculations are based on the Short Term Wind Power Forecast (STWPF) and the Short-Term PhotoVoltaic Power Forecast (STPPF)—i.e., a 50% probability of exceedance (P50)—pursuant to language introduced by NPRR210, Wind Forecasting Change to P50, Synchronization with PRR841, and NPRR615, PVGR Forecasting. Although NPRR210 directs ERCOT to utilize the WGRPP (P80) in RUC capacity short calculations, there was a missed impact given that the P80 forecast is currently not available in the Market Management System (MMS) but instead resides in the Energy Management System (EMS). Only the STWPF and STPPF, which are used as inputs into the Day-Ahead RUC (DRUC) and Hourly RUC (HRUC), are available in MMS.